Melissa now expected to make landfall on Tuesday as major hurricane

Tropical Storm Melissa is now expected to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday as a major hurricane, with the system expected to bring heavy rains and flooding across the island.

Speaking with The Gleaner on Friday evening, head of the Met office, Evan Thompson, said Melissa is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and further strengthen on Sunday.

Earlier this week, Thompson told a press conference that there was a “slim chance” or possibility that Melissa could make landfall.

Now, based on the current path of the storm, as of Friday, it is expected to become a major hurricane and make landfall on Tuesday, said Thompson.

“It is expected to continue moving more or less toward the west until it is south of Jamaica, directly south of, say, central Jamaica, and then it should start moving more to the north. So at that time, we are expecting that it will rapidly intensify. It could likely become a major hurricane by Monday, and then through Tuesday, we are expecting that it will actually be moving across the island from south to north, central Jamaica, and then exiting later on Tuesday and moving toward Cuba…. We're looking at a major hurricane making landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday,” he told The Gleaner.

“Well, with landfall, all that means is that the eye or the centre of the system is expected to move across the coast. And that usually means that if you're living on the land, residents will experience the strongest winds from the system because those would normally surround the eye. And you'll also be experiencing winds from two opposite directions because the eye is really where the change of direction takes place,” said Thompson when asked what Jamaicans should expect.

“If you're on the eastern side, you would see systems or you'll experience the wind moving from the south. But if you're on the western side, you would be experiencing the wind coming from the north. And so you have both sides of the eye with the double effect of those strongest winds impacting the land,” he continued.

The Met office has continued its tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for Jamaica.

The unpredictable system has been moving slowly across the Caribbean Sea, lingering south of Jamaica.

Melissa is expected to dump heavy rainfall across Jamaica, with between 12 and 16 inches projected for eastern parishes through the weekend before spreading to other parishes during the course of next week.

This could cause widespread flooding and landslides, with the system moving westward next week.

At 8:00 p.m. on Friday, the centre of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 74.6 West.

A turn to the west is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday.

A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the centre of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h)with higher gusts.

Rapid intensification is forecast over the next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the centre.

As the tropical storm moves closer to the island, expect strong, gusty winds reaching tropical storm force to initially affect eastern parishes later today and continuing into the weekend across the island.

Hurricane force winds are also possible from as early as Saturday.

While marine areas will see further deterioration today, small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

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