A political earthquake

PARIS (AP):

A French court on Monday convicted Marine Le Pen of embezzlement and barred her from seeking public office for five years – a hammer blow to the far-right leader’s presidential hopes and an earthquake for French politics.

Le Pen’s lawyer said she would appeal the verdict – but she will remain ineligible while she does and so could be ruled out of the 2027 presidential race. She was also sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, with two to be served under house arrest and two suspended.

The court ruling was a political as well as a judicial temblor for France, hobbling one of the leading contenders to succeed President Emmanuel Macron at the end of his second and final term. So broad were the political implications that even some of Le Pen’s opponents reacted by saying that the Paris court had gone too far.

But it’s too early to say how it will affect voters. The potential elimination of Le Pen could fire up die-hard supporters, just as US President’s Donald Trump’s legal problems motivated some of his. But it could also leave her on the sidelines, deflating what had been her upward trajectory.

Le Pen herself wasn’t around to hear the chief judge pronounce the sentence that threw her career into a tailspin. By then, she’d already strode out of the courtroom, when the judge first indicated that the 56-year-old would be barred from office, without saying straight away for how long.

Although Le Pen didn’t immediately comment, her supporters quickly expressed disapproval. Jordan Bardella, her 29-year-old protégé who could replace her on the ballot in 2027 if she can’t run, said on X that Le Pen “is being unjustly condemned” and that French democracy “is being executed.”

Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, quickly took to social media to express his support, posting “Je suis Marine!” – I am Marine – on X.

Among political opponents of Le Pen who expressed unease was conservative lawmaker Laurent Wauquiez, who said the verdict put “a very heavy weight on our democracy.”

The sentence could prevent Le Pen from making what would have been her fourth run for the presidency in 2027, a scenario she has previously described as a “political death”. The party’s most recognised figurehead and a formidable and seasoned political campaigner, Le Pen was runner-up to Macron in 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, and her party’s electoral support has grown in recent years.

Only an appeal ruling that overturns the ban on public office could restore her hopes of running. But with the election just two years away, time is running out, there’s no guarantee that an appeals court would rule more favourably, and appeals in France can take several years to conclude.