Orville Taylor | Trumped but not dumped

Yes, it was a blue wave. At last count, the House of Representatives and the Senate in the American Congress shifted in a major way in the midterm elections.

Final counts have not yet been made official. However, the last numbers at the time of writing showed a shift in the Senate, with the Democrats now holding a decisive majority of 54. In the House, it is even more impressive. A swing of 21 now lands the Congress squarely into the laps of the Dems, with 253.

History has been made. Some 18 years after America elected its first openly black president, a black Democrat is slated to be the Speaker of the House. Hakeem Jeffries had already made history as the first House leader of any party when he succeeded Nancy Pelosi in 2022.

Interestingly, like former president Barack Obama, he has an Islamic and Christian name, which means ‘the wise one’. The nephew of radical Africanist Leonard Jeffries, his parents, Marland and [name omitted in original], are both social workers, making him an ideal candidate for articulating social policy.

But the extent of the congressional realignment must be a reality check for Americans on the whole, especially those whose two-fisted backing of President Donald Trump must be indexed to their losses.

With a disapproval rating of approximately 61 per cent and approval of 35 per cent across most national polls, not only was the writing on the wall, but it also emblazoned a mural whose dominant primary colour was not red.

For fear of telling the emperor about his new clothes, the signs and demographics were largely ignored. Perhaps the biggest bulwark which militated against any prospect of victory has been what 90 per cent of the world believes is an unprovoked and unjustifiable onslaught on Iran.

At the end of September, 65 per cent said the Trump administration lacked a clear strategy for ending the war, and more significantly, only 15 per cent believe that the current path taken would produce a winnable or positive result.

More than 55 per cent are opposed to the war. This is virtually the same percentage shift among those who voted last week. Americans generally believe that their country should not have gone into battle against Iran, a move pushed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Republicans should have also done a reality check among Israelis, who, according to a major Israeli media outlet, feel similarly about their leader as Americans do. Moreover, no less than 80 per cent of Israelis opine that the war has, contrary to the official narrative about Iran’s threat, actually made them more insecure.

Americans’ favourability towards Israel hovers around 44 per cent, and 56 per cent feel that military aid must cease or diminish. They split at 41 per cent sympathetic to Palestinians, compared with 36 per cent towards Israelis.

In no universe is this an item on the prescription for an aggressive ‘electile’ dysfunction. At no time did the Republicans have it in hand, but the truth was being ignored.

More history has been created because, even if America is still a ‘caucasophile’ republic, the numerous presidential decrees have alienated multiple demographics.

While these presidential orders are perfectly legal under the American legislative system, if used in arbitrary and divisive ways, they cause pushback among voters when the polls open.

Last week was comeuppance in every spelling of the word, even without the middle ‘P’.

Trump’s policies have affected sexual minorities, immigrants, and other minorities, including those from other countries who do not share the antipathy towards Cuba espoused by many of the MAGA flock. Only 30 per cent of Americans like how the government is treating that country.

More than 60 per cent of Americans disapprove of ICE, with a further five percentage points, bringing the figure to 65 per cent, thinking that its tactics have gone too far.

A president who has no fear of losing another election and immense power in his hands has nothing to personally lose. However, some party members did, and lost.

By the way, Jeffries’ election is only the tip of the iceberg. For the first time, an openly gay person has made it all the way into the inner chamber and through the front door. A Muslim, not only by name but a devout man, who supports both the Constitution and the Qur’an, is jibing with his detractors, who will now have to swear him in.

Latina and First Nation citizens are also in the House, and so too has another black woman entered. Against the wave, but in a strange twist, a black man, a Republican though, is now the Governor of Florida. The first, but of an unexpected skin colour.

Finally, not sure if influenced by the Jamaican pledge to “stand up for justice....”, but the first transgender person joins the other LGBTQ victor.

Still, on this note, what does this mean for us in Jamaica? Trump’s executive orders will still stand. Being a ‘lame duck’ president, one who has no more chance of being re-elected but with a hostile legislature, there is virtually nothing to stop him from doing what he decides, irrespective of what his party or electorate might desire.

We should expect zero paradigm shift. True, the actions in Iran may end up avoiding greater catastrophe, but we will still see Trump being Trump.

Finally, as our own legislature struggles to succeed with references to mothers, men putting up fists and parliamentarians pushing their luck, and testing the lines of decency, just remember that in 2023 the Democrats squeezed us for refusing to break our own laws and accredit the partner of a diplomat, who cannot qualify as a spouse under our statutes.

Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.