Mark Wignall | More heated than the conflict

Even in the midst of celebrating our independence and highlighting some of the brave individuals who stuck around for the long haul in building Jamaica, the war between Iran and the US continues to have a major impact on global affairs and even more so on post-Melissa reconstruction efforts, which have been affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Think about it. Before the US attacked Iran, oil prices were stable and relatively low. After the war started, oil prices increased sharply. The world economy received a major blow. Since the war has dragged on, oil prices have fluctuated but have remained above pre-war levels.

The world suffers. But Iran now has greater influence over oil prices, which it did not have before the war. Any time Iran wants to increase world oil prices, it fires missiles and drones at another country. Recently, it reportedly fired missiles and drones at Jordan. Jordan is not an enemy of Iran.

Recently, Iran also reportedly fired drones and missiles at Egypt, a country that is not an enemy of Iran.

But each time Iran fired those missiles and drones, whatever the damage to Jordan or Egypt, oil prices spiked upward. Oil markets became ever more jittery. So Iran now appears to exert significant influence over oil prices for the foreseeable future. Good for Iran, bad for the world. Iran has an almost unlimited supply of drones and missiles.

Now here is a fact that has to be dealt with. The US cannot destroy all the missiles and drones. Iran is a mountainous country and is hiding drones and missiles in mountainous regions. The US cannot get to all the missiles and drones. Iran can keep up this strategy for a while and certainly until the US midterm elections.

To curtail Trump’s powers and create havoc for him, the Iranians are allegedly helping the Democrats retake the House and win the midterm elections.

DON’T ASSUME CHINA IS SLEEPING

It puzzles me why China is not more proactive in assisting Cuba, especially in the face of Trump openly displaying what some critics see as weakness and diplomatic ineptitude.

In the meantime, China watches the war carefully and silently, like a lioness stalking prey. China reportedly helps Iran launder its oil earnings, supplies Iran with technology and resources to keep making those ever-dangerous missiles and drones, facilitates the movement of resources and supplies to Iran via land because of the US blockade, and, importantly for China’s military, watches very carefully what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

In Iran and throughout the Middle East, China is observing the US war strategy and identifying what weaknesses in the US military machine have been exposed. Its curiosity is being satisfied. This valuable information will help China decide how to attack Taiwan, should Taiwan not submit to Chinese control, and how to fend off the US if it comes to Taiwan’s aid.

So China comes out very well in this horrible mess of a war. In fact, the winner in the war may be China, and China never fired a shot. By helping Iran against the US while observing from the sidelines, China watches the US bleed. China is cunning and calculating, even more so than Iran, and Iran is just as cunning and calculating in key moments.

IRAN AND AMERICAN POLITICS

It seems to me that the Democrats are working very hard at helping the Republicans keep the House and the Senate in the US. They have no good election strategy. They are like Argentina against Spain in the World Cup: clueless.

How? By having socialists or democratic socialists win primaries for the midterm elections in November 2026. Americans are mainly centrists. They have never been socialists.

Iran could end the conflict very soon, but it appears to be playing the “long game”. It wants to keep the war front and centre for the midterm elections. The longer the conflict goes on, the more American voters, especially independents, grow frustrated and angry with Trump and may take out that frustration and anger in the voting booth in November 2026.

Currently, I feel that Iran and China have the upper hand, so to speak. I also think Netanyahu may have bamboozled Trump into the war. Netanyahu has a reputation for being impulsive, and it has been a problem for him. Trump, being impulsive too, played right into his hands.

WE DON’T NEED ANOTHER HURRICANE MELISSA

Time has slipped by so quickly that we are at the cusp of another hurricane season. At the beginning of the hurricane season in 1988, no one was thinking that Hurricane Gilbert, in September, would devastate Jamaica from Morant Point to Negril. But it happened. The math was favourable to such a possibility, love it or not.

Major General Antony Anderson is likely to find himself in a traffic jam of disaster preparedness and recovery efforts for those who need them most. Hurricanes have been named in 2026, and we expect many more. It is likely that the math will not favour one monster storm right behind another, but we cannot say with certainty that hurricanes go to math classes.

The NaRRA has not indicated whether construction materials and items developed specifically for post-Hurricane Melissa rebuilding are caught up in the global maze in the Strait of Hormuz, but if that is the case, we have a right to know.

Jamaica experienced an earthquake in 1993. It opened a space between two concrete walls in my house, but we never came close to the level of destruction that recently happened in Colombia. In Jamaica, we hardly ever dwell on earthquakes and the damage they can cause. There is no earthquake season, after all.

Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com