Michael Abrahams | Another war

On Friday, June 13, Israel launched ‘Operation Rising Lion’, an unprecedented attack on Iran, in response to intelligence it claimed showed that the country was “approaching the point of no return” in the development of a nuclear weapon. The attacks hit military and government targets, killing several senior military leaders.

The relationship between Israel and Iran was not always like this. The two nations were allies before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when a new theocratic regime ideologically opposed to Israel’s existence was installed. Since then, the two countries have been at odds. Iran has attacked Israel directly twice before, but in retaliation. The first was on April 13, 2024, following the Israeli bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on April 1, 2024, which killed two Iranian generals, and on October 1, 2024, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut.

However, since 1985, there have been multiple conflicts between Israel and Iran’s proxies, which include the Islamist paramilitary groups Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and other groups in Iraq and Syria. The most notable conflict is the ongoing Gaza war, which began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militant groups launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing 1,195 Israelis and foreign nationals, including 815 civilians, and taking 251 hostages, in an attempt to coerce Israel to release Palestinian prisoners. It was the largest number of Israelis killed in a single event since the Holocaust.

PEACEFUL PURPOSES

Iran has had a nuclear programme for more than 50 years, insisting that it only serves peaceful purposes and is being used for energy. But Israel rubbishes that claim and views Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile programme as part of a plan to eliminate the state. What makes the situation more ominous are the annihilatory narratives from Iran’s leadership. Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, repeatedly speaks of the desire for Israel to be eliminated. As recent as October 3, 2023, days before the Hamas-led October 7 attacks, he declared, “This cancer will definitely be eradicated, God willing, at the hands of the Palestinian people and the resistance forces throughout the region.”

For years, Israel, and in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has insisted that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, even as Tehran denies it has such ambitions. For over three decades, since 1992, Netanyahu has been repeating this claim, but there is still no evidence that Iran has nuclear missiles.

As part of a 2015 deal with the US, other Western countries, China and Russia, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme and allow the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to regularly inspect its facilities in return for relief from severe sanctions that it was experiencing. However, in 2018, in his first presidential term, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions, following which, according to Israeli intelligence, uranium enrichment accelerated.

As recently as March this year, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress saying the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building nuclear weapons and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003.”

IN BREACH

On Thursday, June 12, the IAEA declared that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, but stated that it found no evidence of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Iran claimed the report was politicised and responded by announcing it would ramp up its nuclear activities, announcing the launch of a new uranium enrichment centre and the installation of advanced centrifuges. This move was likely to escalate tensions and complicate nuclear talks with the United States, scheduled to resume that weekend.

But by the next day, Israel attacked. After days of airstrikes, significant damage was done to Iran’s facility at Natanz, which houses centrifuges necessary to enrich uranium. However, a second, heavily fortified enrichment site at Fordow, situated at a depth of 80 to 90 metres below rocks, remained effectively untouched. According to defence experts, Israel lacks the capability to breach and damage Fordow without specific US weapons, including “bunker-busting bombs” and aerial support. On Sunday, June 22, Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social that the US had attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, stating, “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operations required months and weeks of planning, suggesting America’s commitment to attack long before the war even began. Trump claimed the attacks “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. However, according to the New York Times, US officials now concede they do not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium, as there is evidence that Iran had moved uranium and equipment from Fordow prior to the strikes.

Some geopolitical pundits praise Israel and America’s swift and decisive actions, claiming they averted a possible disaster resulting from future Iranian aggression. Others express concern about Trump proceeding with the attack without approval from Congress, the likelihood that Israel violated international human rights laws by launching an unprovoked attack, possible global repercussions, and what appears to be hypocrisy and double standards regarding the scrutiny of Israel’s versus Iran’s nuclear activities. For instance, despite not possessing nuclear weapons, Iran has opened its facilities to inspection by the IAEA and signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). On the other hand, Israel is estimated to possess at least 90 nuclear warheads and has done neither.

In the meantime, Iran vows retaliation, and its parliament has approved the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil and liquid gas passes. We will never know if Iran would have attacked Israel had it been left alone. What we do know is that we now have another war.

Michael Abrahams is an obstetrician and gynaecologist, social commentator, and human-rights advocate. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and michabe_1999@hotmail.com, or follow him on X , formerly Twitter, @mikeyabrahams