Elizabeth Morgan | Jamaica, Trump tariffs and the CBI

INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE trade statistics for Jamaica for the first quarter of 2025 (January-March) have been released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, showing that imports rose and exports declined, thus with a widening trade deficit. These are the trade figures for the world. Being up to March, they do not reflect the impact of the Trump baseline tariff of 10 per cent, which was imposed on all countries, including those in the Caribbean, on April 2, ‘Liberation Day’, and implemented on April 5.

ANY IMPACT OFUS TARIFFS?

We can look specifically at the US-Jamaica trade statistics by using the trade figures from the US Census Bureau. For the first five months of 2024, the US exported goods valued at approximately US$1,090 million to Jamaica and imported goods valued at US$144 million, with the US having a surplus of US$945 million. In April 2024, the US exported US$224.4 million in goods to Jamaica and imported US$22 million. In May 2024, the US exported US$236 million and imported US$31 million.

For the same period in 2025, the US exported to Jamaica goods valued at US$1,066 million and imported goods from Jamaica valued at US$161 million, with a surplus of US $907 million. Overall, US exports declined. Regardless, it is evident that the US has a significant trade-in-goods surplus with Jamaica, and has done so for many years.

With tariffs imposed on Jamaican exports to the USA in April, the US in that month exported goods valued at US$227 million and imported goods valued at US$31.2 million with a surplus of US$196 million. Imports from Jamaica were up in April 2025. In May 2025, exports from the US to Jamaica declined to US$216.2 million and imports were down to US$24 million from US$31 million in April and in May 2024. It may be too early to assess a downward trend in imports from Jamaica due to tariffs, although there is a decline between April and May 2025. The CARICOM Private Sector Organization has projected that CARICOM states could experience significant losses due to the Trump tariffs.

On July 16, President Trump stated that tariffs imposed on small countries in the Caribbean and Africa will remain after August 1, his new deadline date, and that letters will be sent out notifying countries.

In the 49th CARICOM Heads communiqué under external trade, the heads “agreed to continue the community’s advocacy with the US administration at the highest political level, to safeguard the region’s trade interests with its most important trading partner”. Given Trump’s announcement that tariffs would be maintained on countries in the Caribbean and Africa, it is evident that advocacy could be an exercise in futility. However, things can change.

WTO MFN WAIVER FOR CBI

There is, however, a curious entry in the CARICOM communiqué which states that the heads “welcomed the tabling of a request by the US for a five-year WTO [MFN] waiver for the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) until 30 September 2030 and agreed that the region would continue to engage constructively with the US Trade Representative (USTR) to address the future bilateral trade relationship”.

This raised eyebrows as the US president’s tariffs override the duty-free, non-reciprocal preferential arrangements of CBI.

A further explanation/reminder is required here. The CBI is congressionally approved legislation and is included in the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA) and the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA). The setting of tariffs is the prerogative of the US Congress. The president is only allowed under the Trade Act to temporarily impose tariffs. Since April 2, President Trump has been imposing tariffs under the Emergency Economy Act. Thus, the CBI remains valid and in place, though temporarily suspended, it would seem.

So, it appears that the USTR is doing what would be customarily required and is requesting a new Most Favoured Nation (MFN) waiver for the CBI (CBERA/CBTPA) at the World Trade Organization. The current waiver expires this year.

We now wait to see what will happen with the Trump tariffs imposed on Jamaica and other Caribbean CBI beneficiary counties as August 1, Emancipation Day in the countries of the English-speaking Commonwealth Caribbean, approaches.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com