Gordon Robinson | Do the math
Published:Sunday | November 16, 2025 | 12:07 AM
For the next two years the most important cabinet member is likely to be the Finance Minister.
Some night say that’s always so. Not really. When things are going well, Finance Minister only counts cash and allocates expenditure where needed. With a Debt/GDP ratio hovering around 60 per cent the task, while never simple, is relatively uncomplicated compared with when it was 140 per cent. So, for example, during a pandemic, when the most important cabinet member is the Health Minister, Finance Minister keeps it tight but isn’t under real pressure.
NOW, if she mucks around, Jamaica’s Finance Minister will find out what real pressure is. Even if she doesn’t, her stress levels are about to go through the roof (or where the roof was before Melissa). But she can’t muck around. She must grow a steel backbone and be prepared to say “no” early and often. It’s time for every Jamaican, especially those of us obsessed with scoring cheap political points, to face reality checks.
• PM announced preliminary assessment of the value of the damage at US$6-7 billion. That’s BILLION with a capital “B”. And that rhymes with “T”. And that stands for Trouble!
• In 2024 Jamaica’s GDP was US$19.93 Billion. So, in the unlikely event we get lucky and the damage ends up at US$6 billion instead of seven, that’s 31 per cent of Jamaica’s GDP.
Thirty. one. Per. Cent! Let that sink in.
After Melissa struck, Finance Minister listed the “layers” of disaster recovery funding available. They are:
1. J$5.3 billion Contingencies Fund in the Budget;
2. J$1 billion National Natural Disaster Reserve Fund;
3. Two insurance policies with Caribbean Catastrophic Insurance Facility (Tropical CycloneUS$91.6 million; excessive rainfall US$37.3 million);
4. US$150 million Catastrophe Bond;
5. US$285 million Contingent loans with IDB
Put down the calculators. Let me do the math for you. Excluding “contingent loans” available funding totals almost US$320 million.
So, even if we achieve full payout of all “layers” we’ll be short US$5.6-6.6 Billion. That’s assuming cost of rebuilding better, more resistant equals value of the damage. But we know insurance companies write off damaged cars because the repair cost exceeds the car’s value. We can’t write off western Jamaica. We must repair no matter the cost.
Additional costs are hiding. For example we know what comes after insurance claims especially for maximum payout. Premium costs increase dramatically. We can also expect projected tax inflows to fall well short.
So from where will 31 per cent of GDP come? Face it. Jamaica will have to borrow that money from international lenders. So brace yourself for the heady wine of a 60 per cent debt/GDP ratio turning back to water and climbing to 90 per cent or more very soon. Add that to pressures from lower revenues, budgetary allocations could be shaved; some cut. Expect Supplementary Estimates. This is why PM was so agitated recently about JTA’s myopic messengers complaining about getting back to school “too soon.”
They must be high!
As PM pointed out, perish that thought. Production in the East must be ramped up as production in the West falls. There’s no other way to restrict the inevitable borrowing as much as possible.
And borrowing can’t be avoided because, before Melissa, Jamaica’s economy was growing at 1.0 per cent per annum. So relief and recovery funding won’t come from economic growth especially with one-half Jamaica’s economy in tatters. We can’t depend on the generous humanitarian aid that has been coming in. That’s relief not rebuilding aid and it can only last until somewhere else needs it more.
Reality check will tell you we’ll be borrowing a truckload of cash. Reality check will tell you it’s essential to have a bipartisan Oversight Committee to monitor and report on spending of borrowed funds. As expected, Auditor General is already on the accountability train but that office can’t do it alone. But, yet again, when consistency and co-operation should be watchwords, Jamaica’s efforts are hampered by an apparently confused Opposition that seems incapable of mature decision making. Shortly after Melissa departed, Mark Golding, at one of PNP’s competing press conferences called for “a broad-based task force to be given the responsibility of governance oversight over the relief effort….not to manage the process….but to provide oversight of those who are managing it.”
Good idea!
PM took him at his word and announced a joint select committee of Parliament to do just that. So PNP rejected even that good faith, bipartisan step towards “broad-based oversight” with Phillip Paulwell writing “on reflection” PNP considered such a committee would be “duplicating and usurping [PAAC’s] role and function.”
Christ on a crutch! Surely this isn’t because PAAC, normal budgetary expenditure’s routine overseer, is chaired by the Opposition when a “broad-based” oversight body would likely be chaired by a Government appointee? That would be more infantile polytricking in the face of a national disaster.
So, right on cue, on Wednesday, Paulwell issued a statement “clarifying” PNP‘s position that retaining Chairmanship of any Parliamentary Committee overseeing recovery expenditure was indeed a concern. He also said Government’s proposed parliamentary committee wasn’t sufficiently “broad-based”. But, on PNP reasoning, wouldn’t any Committee, whether Parliamentary or “broad-based”, “usurp” PAAC functions? If not, what did Paulwell mean by “on reflection”? In English, those words mean PNP changed its mind “on reflection” regarding a broad-based oversight committee. On what else would you be reflecting but your previous call?
Flip, flop or fly, you gotta make up your mind!
Lookie here, this is a long-haul mission. Expect massive holes in the next two budgets because seismic expenditure shifts can’t happen immediately. There’s no magic wand. This isn’t routine. Traditional routine won’t help. This can only be done one day at a time; putting one foot in front of the other; believing; always moving ahead with eyes wide open. Rebuilding work can only follow rebuilding expenditure. Both are awesome undertakings so should comply with Audley “Are You” Shaw’s favourite mantra “phase it eeeeen!”
The mission won’t be accomplished while political panderers run around like chickens with their heads cut off allowing political anxiety to result in muddled messages seemingly driven by contrarian urges. Every Jamaican must get on board and help to ensure we don’t again fritter away borrowed funds on “eat a food” mentality. Because, as the great Norman Washington Jackson (a.k.a. “Tiger”) would say:
No wanga gut; no wanga belly!
No licky licky; no nyammy nyammy!
“Grandiose”? Surely you jest? The only thing grandiose now is the recovery cost. So, we don’t need any more confused “clarity” from PNP. Jamaica needs a concerted effort to obtain needed funds on best terms. This can’t be done by Government alone. Jamaica needs a National Recovery Funding Committee (NRFC) chaired by Finance Minister and including representatives from both political parties; the financial sector; and civil society to ensure it has the best international contacts and can get the best deals. Monitoring NRFC’s work would also be within the remit of that “broad-based oversight” committee which I support. This isn’t something PAAC is equipped to handle.
This is no time for bureaucratic, pencil pushing, red tape measuring mindsets or polytricksters.
These are currently irrelevant in crafting Jamaica’s fiscal future because, although we’ve no choice but to borrow, we must pursue a can-do-oriented goal of staying below a debt/GDP ratio ceiling of 90 per cent. Civil society buy-in during borrowing and spending processes is essential. Transparency will be central to national success. We cannot afford disunity. We cannot afford political obstruction; civil distrust; or civil unrest.
The only way to avoid these perilous possibilities is inclusion. In addition to demanding inclusion, we must understand this is no time for petty polytricks or premature calls for the impossible. It’s a fact that Jamaica wasn’t the best prepared for this storm. That was due to decades of frippery masquerading as fiscal policy. No current Government, regardless of political colour or persuasion, could’ve avoided this sad consequence.
So we must put hands and hearts together; ensure we collaborate not compete; and get this unpleasantness done for the greater good. There’s zero politics in this. It isn’t rocket science. It’s simple math. Either we do the math or we fail the exam. That’s it. That’s all!
Peace and Love.
Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com