Gordon Robinson | A tale of two rallies

It was the worst of times; it was the very worst of times.

Election campaign intensification began leading up to the election date announcement on Sunday, August 10. The spectre of political violence had already been raised twice in Central Kingston with shootings in the vicinity of a political rally and of a visit by political representatives. So, all with eyes to see and ears to hear knew that, going forward, discretion should be the better part of valour.

Yet a strange thing happened surrounding Emancipendence week. JLP announced it would have a mass meeting in Half Way Tree on August 10. PNP announced one in Cross Roads for the same evening.

Holy indiscretion Batman!

How was this allowed to happen? Once Election Day announcement dragged into July, every Jamaican with a half the political know-how, experience or savvy of a rat bat “knew” the election date would be announced at a mass rally on the first Sunday after Independence.

In. Half. Way. Tree!

If PNP didn’t expect this then it’s politically stupid. While we can accuse PNP of all sorts of political folly, stupidity isn’t one.

Online scrambles for excuses by PNP sycophants (“we asked for a permit first”; “the JLP rally was announced after we planned ours”; and so on and so fifth) proliferated. But it’s incongruous to conclude anything other than PNP always expected the election announcement for the obvious time and decided to hold a simultaneous mass rally. If PNP was so blissfully unaware of JLP’s likely election date announcement that it planned its rally innocently as a grand island-wide tour finale then why Cross Roads? That’s not a place where grand political finales are traditionally held.

Why didn’t they “plan” their grand finale for Half Way Tree?Consequently, PNP is stuck with Cross Roads for its big finale. They can’t credibly change venue now. If only they’d played it differently, the Parish Capital would’ve been available for PNP’s “Parish Meeting” sans controversy.

Elementary my dear Watson! PNP (and the rest of Jamaica) expected a JLP rally in Half Way Tree. So choice of venue for its “grand finale” was probably a deliberate plan to disrupt JLP’s event. Dayton Campbell did threaten, on a political platform, to come to Kingston and “if they don’t call it we will call it!” Coinkidink? I think not.

Less than 48 hours before the planned rally clash, PNP decided to postpone. Why? Nobody knows for sure but I suspect somebody had a quiet word which led to the late term abortion. Only extreme anxiety to seize political power by any means necessary could’ve driven this inapt idea to disrupt and divide.

PNP described the postponement of its planned Sunday evening mass rally in Cross Roads as “the responsible decision”. Nah! The responsible decision would’ve been not to schedule and promote it so widely despite inappropriate timing and location. Especially in the heated political climate, it was political irresponsibility at its height.

But, as they say in Texas, oils wells that ends wells. Now that post time is set and runners all but officially declared, it’s time to update election predictions.

Don’t start with me about too soon. There’s no need to attend any spot/mass meetings; watch or listen to predictable political advertisements; sleep through boring “debates” where participants come with prepared speeches unconnected to questions asked and deliver them anyway; or, wusserer, read the latest opinion polls.

This election is already won and lost. The next three weeks can only become an intolerably prolonged pre-game show as fodder for so-called political analysts’ incessant yapping while political party sycophants secure their reward for political loyalty. At the same time, so-called “uncommitted voters” (who have long ago committed to their own choices) chafe at the bit to dip their fingers in indelible ink or buy popcorn with which to watch the game.

There seems to be a casual dismissal of the need for Manifestos creeping into political discussion. One “political analyst” essayed the opinion manifestos don’t sway voters. Mebbe they do. Mebbe they don’t. But, that’s not Manifestos’ purpose. Manifestos are the record We the People use to hold the next Government accountable. They’re like pleading in a civil lawsuit. If you deviate from your pleading at trial the Judge will hold you to account. We’re the judges of governments’ deviation from Manifestos.

On April 13 (Pick a winner wouldja please?) I predicted a JLP win by one to four seats depending on the outcome of specific variables. Firstly, I expected the election to be done and dusted before July. So that’s one variable out the window. The delay, apparently to ensure a popularity boost from Independence celebrations, has, in my opinion, operated against JLP’s interests and very much in favour of PNP.

Frankly, I’m flummoxed as to what PM was thinking and I question either the savvy or cojones of his advisors (excluding Desmond and Daryl who have an abundance of both) who ought to have cautioned him if he was distracted. Anyway, it is what it is.

On April 13, I concluded:

“…I’m expecting Floyd to leverage his Agriculture Ministry’s ‘achievements’; bring home the Bell Weather; and confirm JLP’s, at worst, 32-31win (33-30 if Portmore is a Parish; 34-29 if Chuck/Samuda’s successor both win).”

My moles tell me the delay has gone against JLP in both constituency variables. Government having failed to gerrymander an entire Parish to win one seat, Raymond Pryce should end Terrelonge’s political adventure in St Catherine East-Central. Raymond should’ve done so in 2020 but we all know what Rise United did to PNP six years ago then Covid came along to give One-PNPers an excuse to stay home. Since then, PNP support has coalesced behind Raymond so that’s one more in PNP’s win column.

The delay has also helped Stacey Knight’s campaign to unseat a tired looking Delroy Chuck in St Andrew North-Eastern. She’s an excellent candidate with unlimited potential in national politics while Delroy seems to have been taking constituents for granted for a while. His long stint as MP has been assisted by weak, uncoordinated PNP competition. My UPSET SPECIAL in this election is Stacey Knight to retire Delroy Chuck.

So, after considering all constituency variables, JLP is down to winning by the flare of a nostril (32-31). When you consider some of the bad news that has befallen JLP during the last six weeks including legal setbacks; constitutional reform stalling; candidate selection strife especially in Karl Samuda’s swing seat (yes I said swing seat); public service unrest; and steady increase in real cost of living; this election can clearly go either way. BUT…

Here are the things “uncommitted” voters must assess. If PNP wins Jamaica will be led by the most inexperienced Prime Minister in history. His political pedigree is short and his ministerial experience limited. As Justice Minister for a while, he wasn’t exposed to any cabinet position that deals fundamentally with crucial national issues. Those would include Finance, Education, Health and Infrastructure. Even Labour/Social Security brings a Minister closer to national realities. Shepherding legislation doesn’t prepare you for creating national policy.

So voters who want Mark Golding in Jamaica House must hope that candidates like Peter Bunting, Dayton Campbell and young guns with political or policy pedigree or experience like Janice Allen and Stacey Knight win their seats because he’ll need all the help he can get or will accept.

If JLP wins that comes with different negatives. Yes Jamaica will get experience but, in politics, experience in Government usually comes with arrogance and entitlement. The longer you stay in Government the more you believe Government belongs to you not the other way around. So voters who want to retain Andrew Holness should hope young, service-oriented candidates ready to step up to cabinet level or mature in that job like Juliet Cuthbert, Kerensia Morrison, Pearnel Charles Jnr and Fayval Williams stay in parliament. Jamaica’s inane system of governance doesn’t allow PMs to nominate capable people outside of Parliament as cabinet members.

At the end of the day, credible pundits can’t waffle; hide behind “margins of error”; or pick both sides to ensure they can claim success after the race is run. So, despite a likely nail-biting finish and after considering all the factors (including the lingering effects of Rise United’s ill-advised attack on PNP that fragmented the party and saw too many stalwarts leaving or switching allegiance), I stick with my prediction of a 32-31 JLP win and a very intriguing next Parliament.

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com