Gordon Robinson | The maths not mathsing!

Last week (“Do the Math”) we discussed some previously unspoken long term consequences of the devastation wrought by Melissa.

It’s time to face another reality check. There are also some very acute short term consequences we must tackle as a nation. And we MUST stop the incessant politicking and confront them together. Because, make no mistake about it, we are in trouble. ALL of us not just the politicians you don’t support or their sycophants.

Jamaica, this isn’t a fantasy. It isn’t a game. It’s very, very real.

Last week I highlighted the likely demise of the touted 60 per cent debt to GDP ratio. I explained why, through no fault of any politician but thanks to Melissa, that ratio cannot be sustained in the foreseeable future.

But, there’s more. Another mirage that’s about to be dispelled very soon is the “stable” exchange rate. The banks’ average selling price is currently alleged to be at just above J$161.00 to US$1.00. I call it a mirage because, whenever the Old Ball and Chain needs a few US$ to buy a pair of slippers she’s asked to pay significantly in excess of the published “average”.

A friend, and fellow horseracing enthusiast, recently assured me that the exchange rate is heading to J$180.00 to US$1.00 in a hurry. My other friend and alter ego, The Terrible Tout (“Triple T” to Twitter pal Kelly Katherine), has no option but to agree. My moles in financial circles throw their heads back and laugh when I repeat this dire prediction. “It’s already there” they say. “It’s only BOJ tricks with National Reserves that keeps the dream alive.”

So, last week, we attempted long term math. This week we try some short term Add Math:

(1) All building materials are imported

From January to March 2024, Jamaica’s imports of construction materials were valued at US$113.2 million, a decline of 26.3 per cent compared to first quarter 2023. That decline was only 13.5 per cent for the period January to October 2024. In other words, imports got on the fast track especially after Beryl’s July 3 visit.

What do you think is likely to happen in 2026? Me, teacher! Construction materials imports will skyrocket.

(2) Food will have to be imported

According to STATIN, total imports January-May 2025 cost US$3,161.5 million or more than US$3 BILLION (up 3.6 per cent over the same period in 2024). Exports for the same period earned US$773 million (DOWN 6.9 per cent from the same period in 2024).

In 2022 (latest data published by STATIN) total food exports were almost J$42 Billion or about US$273 million. With apologies for comparing 2022 numbers with 2025’s, because that’s all we have, it can immediately be seen how food exports make up about 36 per cent of total exports.

As we look at our short term food export prospects, we must understand

• The largest proportion of Jamaica’s farm land is to be found in Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Ann, and Westmoreland;

• Trelawny is a major producer and exporter of yams, which contribute significantly to Jamaica’s total fresh produce exports;

• The largest number of registered farmers are in St. Elizabeth and contribute significantly to domestic and export food crop output;

• Mango, breadfruit, ackee and avocado are in demand globally. Hanover, Westmoreland and St. James are among the regions that are most suitable for the growth of these crops;

• Coffee isn’t grown in the hardest hit areas but the hilly regions of St. Andrew and Portland, where many coffee farms are located, were severely affected by strong gusty winds and have sustained crop and infrastructure damage.

(3) Tourism inflows greatly reduced

Infrastructure damage to hotels in the tourism belt was significant. Bahia Principe has already announced its Grand Jamaica property won’t open before December 2026. Half Moon suffered severe infrastructural damage and can’t reopen this year. Smaller properties in Westmoreland are badly affected and might never be the same.

There’s some good(ish) news. Round Hill issued a statement that included the following:

“Although the resort remains fully intact, local infrastructure, including roads, the airport, and power, has been impacted. The safety of our community remains our top priority, and we target to resume welcoming guests on Monday, December 8, 2025. We will do our best to open earlier.”

So Round Hill should re-open in time for the high earning winter season.

Apart from infrastructural damage, hotels are suffering, like all affected persons, from lack of potable water and electricity. All hotels are striving to keep staff employed no matter what but interrupted revenue inflows will affect not only hotels’ but Jamaica’s foreign exchange earnings.

Hotel closures mean massive drops in export earnings and increased trade deficits. Tourism remains Jamaica’s Number One foreign exchange earner.

We should also bear in mind that Insurance payouts are slow and only a fraction of replacement cost. In that regard, pressures on hotels to reopen can conflict with the calculus of business interruption insurance that runs for twelve months from the date of the calamity. Hotels are running businesses so must be careful not to cheat themselves of needed insurance reimbursement due to an over-anxiety to re-open prematurely.

So, short term, we are looking at increased foreign exchange demand and reduced supply. This makes significant devaluation a real prospect. Inflation is set to bare its sharp teeth while Government revenues drop thus putting pressure on Government to revisit its “No New Taxes” mantra.

Because, otherwise, the maths not mathsing!

Believe it or not, by Ripley, the fundamental problem facing Jamaica isn’t political, social or psychological. It’s educational. For 63 years, we’ve insisted on teaching the next generation the British way which is to depend on tradition; swallow it; and regurgitate it on an exam paper. We don’t teach our children to think. If we did, this generation would be able to see beyond the obvious; comprehensively assess the diverse nature of the crisis facing us; and discern the difference between a time for cheap politicking and a time for national unity.

Wake up all the teachers;

time to teach a new way.

Maybe then they’ll listen

to whatcha have to say

’cause they’re the ones who’s comin’ up

and the world is in their hands.

When you teach the children

teach ’em the very best you can

We must stop teaching by rote. In our places of education, we must place more reliance on the arts especially music. Children must learn structure and creativity. Yes, we can learn to recite 1+1 = 2. But what’s a 2? What’s its purpose? How can it help me in life?

We need to change our national philosophy about how to build, or reconstruct, a nation. Melissa’s devastation creates the perfect opportunity

Wake up all the builders;

time to build a new land.

I know we can do it

if we all lend a hand.

The only thing we have to do

is put it in our minds.

Surely things will work out.

They do it every time.

I first came across Wake up Everybody while living in Barbados in 1976. It was the title track on a seminal 1975 album by Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes (featuring Theodore Pendergrass Jnr.). I bought the album in Barbados; brought it with me when I returned home; and kept it to this day. The entire album resonated with a 1970s Jamaican youth whose country was going through philosophical reconstruction. The title song is an anthem for nations stuck in the mud of tradition needing a critical path to rebuilding. Fifty years later, especially post-Melissa, the message remains relevant.

If we begin by teaching the next generation to think laterally as well as linearly, we’ll be well on the way to the national renewal urgently needed to help us deal calmly, calculatingly and capably with national disasters.

But, for now, we have work to do. We have unavoidable adversities to face. We need every hand on deck. We need every heart and mind focused on the ultimate objective namely to build back better at the least fiscal and psychological cost. We need to protect the national economy as best as possible and keep the national psyche healthy, positive and pro-active.

We can do it!

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com